ABSTRACT
The new corona pneumonia (COVID-19) epidemic is still spreading globally. The critical role of ports in the global economy and logistics system are highlighted. More and more attention is paid to port development trend. Therefore, it is very important to establish a model to forecast the development trend of the port container throughput. This paper quantified the factors affecting container throughput such as economy and foreign trade, and predicted the container throughput of ports in China. In this paper, a multi-factor dynamic model is constructed, which considers macroeconomic growth, foreign trade import and export volume, containerization rate, single container weight, empty and heavy container ratio and other factors. With the data of 2020 as the benchmark, it is comprehensively predicted that by 2025. China's port container throughput will reach 320 million TEU. The container throughput growth will continue to decline. The average annual growth will be 4.0% in the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Further, this model can be used to predict the development trend of port container in 2050. At the same time, the development peak of port container throughput in China can also be analyzed. This conclusion can provide a basis for government departments and enterprises to make decisions. © 2022 SPIE
ABSTRACT
Coastal ports play a pivotal role in ensuring the healthy development of China's national economy and society and the smooth flow of global supply chain. The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is impacting the global supply chain system. In this context, China's coastal port throughput prediction has become the focus of attention. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a model to accurately predict the throughput of coastal ports in China. This paper constructs the economy-industry bi-directional prediction model. It also provides a possibility for forecasting the throughput of China's coastal ports during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. On the one hand, build a model to measure the relationship between economic growth and coastal port throughput growth. On the other hand, the model is constructed to measure the correlation between major goods such as coal, iron ore and crude oil. Thus, another result of coastal port throughput is obtained. Given the corresponding weights of the two results, the final prediction results are obtained. It is concluded that on the basis of 2020, China's coastal port throughput will reach 10.7 billion tons by 2025, with an average annual increase of 2.5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. China's coastal port throughput growth rate will slow down. The scale of transportation demand should be fully demonstrated in the future port infrastructure construction. © 2021 IEEE.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To explore the expression and significance of SAA, CRP and FERR in patients diagnosed with COVID-19. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 225 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 who were admitted to the North Hospital of First Hospital in Changsha, China, from 9th February 2020 to 7th March 2020 were enrolled. Their general data, laboratory test results and levels of SAA, CRP and FERR were extracted from electronic medical records. RESULTS: Age was an important risk factor for the severity of COVID-19 in the patients. Compared with the non-severe group, the severe group showed statistical significance in the levels of total protein, albumin, ALT and AST in liver function, UA in renal function, myocardial enzyme CK-MB and LDH, and immunoglobulin IgG and IgM. The levels of SAA, CRP, and FERR were significantly increased in patients with severe COVID-19. ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC, from small to large, was as follows: SAA+CRP+FERR, CRP + FERR, SAA + CRP, SAA + FERR, SAA, FERR, and CRP, which indicated the benefit of the combination of the three indicators. The sensitivity and specificity of the combined detection of the three indicators were higher than those of the detection of any single indicator or two combined indicators. A Spearman correlation analysis of the data showed that the initial CRP/SAA, SAA/FERR, and CRP/FERR were positively correlated. The continuous results of SAA, CRP and FERR throughout the study period showed that the values of the severe group on a given day were higher than those of the non-severe group; the values of the two groups peaked on the 5th or 7th day and then decreased, and the decreasing trend of the severe group was more evident. CONCLUSIONS: SAA, CRP and FERR are sensitive serological indicators used to evaluate the severity of COVID-19. The combined detection of serum SAA, FERR, and CRP, which are positively related to COVID-19 infection, offers guiding significance for the occurrence of COVID-19 infection and the severity of the disease. Such detection provides effective detection indicators for the progress and prognosis of COVID-19; these indicators will enable effective intervention measures to be implemented in time and the rates of severe illness and mortality to be reduced.